Will the 2024 Presidential Elections Impact the Housing Market?

As the 2024 Presidential election approaches, it's natural to wonder about its potential impact on the housing market. Will the election create uncertainty and disrupt home buying and selling plans?  Let's delve into historical data and expert insights to understand the relationship between Presidential elections and the real estate market.

Understanding the Historical Impact of Presidential Elections

Historically, Presidential elections have had a minimal and temporary impact on the housing market. While some consumers may delay their purchase decisions in the months leading up to an election, the overall effect on home sales and prices has been relatively minor.

Home Sales: A Brief Slowdown Followed by Growth

Data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reveals that home sales typically experience a slight slowdown in the month leading up to a Presidential election, from October to November. This slowdown is attributed to some consumers choosing to wait before making a purchase decision. However, this slowdown is generally short-lived and temporary.

Historically, home sales have rebounded and continued to rise in the year following a Presidential election.  Over the past 11 Presidential elections, home sales increased in the year after the election in 9 out of those 11 instances, demonstrating a consistent trend since the early 1990s.

Home Prices: No Significant Impact on Long-Term Trends

Home prices tend to rise over time, regardless of the election cycle. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist notes, an election year doesn't alter the underlying price trend in the market.  While short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term trajectory of home prices remains largely unaffected by Presidential elections.

Mortgage Rates: A Historical Trend of Decreases

Looking at the past 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows that mortgage rates decreased from July to November in 8 out of those 11 instances. This trend suggests that mortgage rates may experience a downward shift in the months leading up to a Presidential election.

Navigating the Housing Market During an Election Year

While Presidential elections may have a minor temporary impact on the housing market, historical data indicates that the overall market remains strong and resilient. The effects of elections on home sales, prices, and mortgage rates are generally minimal and short-lived.  For buyers and sellers, the election shouldn't significantly impact their plans.

As you navigate the housing market during this election cycle, remember that the fundamentals of the market remain strong. Consult with a local real estate agent to gain personalized insights and guidance, ensuring that you make informed decisions based on your individual needs and market conditions.